| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Time to reconsider the west london tram scheme | |
| Posted by: | Robin Taylor | |
| Date/Time: | 10/08/10 15:41:00 |
| "If you want to be 95% certain of the final result [note still not 100% certain - that's never possible] you cannot just take the 'much publicised 48% pro and 37% against'. The figures are actually 48+/- 5 pro and 37+/-5 against [Top of page 8 of the report]. So although its is less likely than 48 to 37, it is still within the 95% probability that the result was 43% pro and 42% against." Yes, and it could equally have been 53% pro and 37% against. This is what is called a "5% confidence interval". (Btw., I worked at MORI for five years, so I know what I'm talking about). "Opponents of the WLT are more likely to have a 'good' understanding of the scheme than those who are in favour of it [35% and 22% respectively]." Let's be precise about this: opponents of the tram were more likely to SAY they had a 'good' understanding of the scheme - which is a different matter altogether. "This misapprehension (of potential benefits of the tram) has possibly arisen by misleading propaganda concerning the scheme" I think you'll find that most of the misleading propaganda came from SES and, most notably, the Ealing Gazette (whose offices are along the projected route). |