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Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit
Posted by: Helena Cavanagh
Date/Time: 29/08/17 18:55:00

Project Fear was about what might happen but what we now have to deal with is what is actually happening. When Brexit happened people at my employer in the marketing industry, didn't think it would have much impact. We have a largely UK client base and don't do significant business in Europe. However we have been quite hard hit so far with several clients reducing planned spending and starting to raise awkward questions about how we will handle things in the event of us leaving the single market - things that it had never even occurred to us might be a problem. Nobody has lost their job yet but we have stopped recruiting.

Some variation of this scenario seems to be being played out for nearly every friend or family member I talk to about how they are being affected. Everybody refers to the huge uncertainty and the likely ruinous impact of leaving the single market - this applies to people in construction, farming, retailing, manufacturing and finance that I have spoken to. Nobody is relishing the prospect of new markets being opened up by the amazing trade deals we will sign as they don't seem to believe this will be significant.

What a few people have pointed out is that it is difficult to see the negotiations progressing beyond the initial stage. Although the UK seems to have accepted that they will have to pay a big divorce bill and it should be relatively easy to come to a deal on continued rights to reside for EU citizens (who are leaving in droves anyway) there is a massive remaining gulf on the Irish border. The EU are placing much more emphasis on this that the UK appear to be partly because they recognise that the Irish have a veto but also because they can see the UK has treaty obligations that it appears to have forgotten. I have met nobody who has any working knowledge of these things who believes you can have one part of Ireland in the customs union and one not without having border checks. The claims by Government ministers about digital checking and frictionless trade are seen as utter fantasies.

Without a deal on the Irish border the talks can't even progress to trade and it is hard to see how the two positions can be squared. If that does lead to the hardest of hard Brexits with no deal quite a significant proportion of people that I have spoken to categorically believe they will have no job and the firm they work for will be out of business. We are not talking about hard core internationalists who have an emotional attachment to the EU but pragmatic business people who have an in depth understanding of the way their industry works - unanimously they think things are bad at the moment and in certain scenarios will get much much worse.  


Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Brexit28/08/17 16:16:00 Graham Weeks
   Re:Brexit28/08/17 17:13:00 Andy Jones
      Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 02:27:00 Graham Weeks
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 10:21:00 Andy Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 10:52:00 Penelope Crocker
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 15:11:00 Graham Weeks
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 15:35:00 Penelope Crocker
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 15:43:00 Graham Weeks
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit29/08/17 18:55:00 Helena Cavanagh
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit05/09/17 08:23:00 Paul James
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit05/09/17 09:40:00 Graham Weeks
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit30/08/17 19:06:00 Libby Kemp
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit30/08/17 22:44:00 Graham Weeks
   Re:Brexit30/08/17 10:55:00 Peter Chadburn
      Re:Re:Brexit30/08/17 12:20:00 Andy Jones
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit30/08/17 12:37:00 Peter Chadburn
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 15:58:00 Andy Jones
   Re:Brexit30/08/17 22:30:00 Peter Yale
      Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 10:49:00 Penelope Crocker
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 14:17:00 Andy Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 14:37:00 Graham Weeks
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 15:06:00 Andy Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 20:01:00 Vlod Barchuk
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit01/09/17 09:44:00 Andy Jones
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit01/09/17 11:11:00 Vlod Barchuk
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit01/09/17 14:40:00 Andy Jones
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit01/09/17 16:30:00 Peter Chadburn
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit05/09/17 20:54:00 Vlod Barchuk
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 14:28:00 Graham Weeks
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit31/08/17 16:00:00 Peter Chadburn
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit01/09/17 09:57:00 Keith Iddon
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit03/09/17 09:09:00 Tricia Arbuthnot
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/09/17 06:16:00 Graham Weeks
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit09/09/17 17:34:00 Peter Yale
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/09/17 07:35:00 Keith Iddon
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/09/17 08:33:00 Andy Jones
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/09/17 14:33:00 Graham Weeks
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit05/09/17 06:17:00 Andy Jones
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit06/09/17 05:30:00 Graham Weeks
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit06/09/17 12:36:00 Peter Chadburn
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit07/09/17 10:43:00 Andy Jones
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit07/09/17 11:12:00 Peter Chadburn
   Re:Brexit01/09/17 09:58:00 Tony Wood
   Re:Brexit05/09/17 08:25:00 Paul James
   Re:Brexit07/09/17 15:05:00 Brian Conneller
      Re:Re:Brexit07/09/17 16:04:00 Penelope Crocker
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit08/09/17 16:02:00 Brian Conneller
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit08/09/17 18:13:00 Graham Weeks
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit11/09/17 08:18:00 Andy Jones
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit11/09/17 10:03:00 Penelope Crocker
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit12/09/17 08:36:00 Helena Cavanagh
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 08:10:00 Graham Weeks
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 09:30:00 Peter Chadburn
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 10:54:00 Keith Iddon
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 11:28:00 Graham Weeks
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 13:33:00 Peter Chadburn
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 13:56:00 Penelope Crocker
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 14:29:00 Keith Iddon
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 14:53:00 Penelope Crocker
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 15:02:00 Bob Little
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 15:05:00 Penelope Crocker
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit13/09/17 17:28:00 Keith Iddon
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit14/09/17 09:54:00 Brian Davis
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit14/09/17 11:38:00 Andy Jones
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit14/09/17 14:49:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit15/09/17 18:26:00 Vlod Barchuk
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 07:38:00 Andy Jones
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 09:34:00 Keith Iddon
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 10:46:00 Martin C. Harris
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 11:07:00 Graham Weeks
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 14:29:00 Keith Iddon
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 14:29:00 Keith Iddon
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit16/09/17 18:06:00 Vlod Barchuk
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit17/09/17 13:32:00 Andy Jones
                                                            Ever closer union?17/09/17 15:59:00 Keith Iddon
                                                               Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 09:28:00 Andy Jones
                                                                  Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 09:50:00 Keith Iddon
                                                                  Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 10:10:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 11:08:00 Tricia Arbuthnot
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 13:09:00 Keith Iddon
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 13:58:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?18/09/17 16:07:00 Paul Corcoran
                                                                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?19/09/17 08:38:00 Andy Jones
                                                                                 The debate in four views20/09/17 09:10:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                    Re:The debate in four views20/09/17 10:02:00 Lee Page
                                                                                       Re:Re:The debate in four views20/09/17 15:51:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?20/09/17 16:27:00 Vlod Barchuk
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?20/09/17 16:48:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Ever closer union?21/09/17 10:21:00 Andy Jones
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/01/18 11:57:00 Judith Jaafar
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/01/18 12:09:00 Graham Weeks
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit04/01/18 12:14:00 Peter Chadburn
   Projections for 'No Deal'15/10/17 17:40:00 Andy Jones
      Re:Projections for 'No Deal'15/10/17 22:42:00 Philippa Bond
         Re:Re:Projections for 'No Deal'16/10/17 07:17:00 Andy Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Projections for 'No Deal'16/10/17 09:27:00 Penelope Crocker
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Projections for 'No Deal'16/10/17 17:39:00 Philippa Bond
   Re:Brexit19/10/17 10:17:00 Nick Foote
      Re:Re:Brexit19/10/17 21:24:00 Susan Rowe
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit20/10/17 20:25:00 Andy Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit21/10/17 09:48:00 Helena Cavanagh
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 08:21:00 Graham Weeks
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 08:50:00 Tricia Arbuthnot
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 09:46:00 Penelope Crocker
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 15:44:00 Graham Weeks
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 12:29:00 Graham Weeks
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 15:00:00 Andy Jones
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit02/11/17 16:04:00 Graham Weeks
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit03/11/17 11:00:00 Helena Cavanagh
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit03/11/17 12:25:00 Penelope Crocker
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit17/11/17 06:08:00 Graham Weeks
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit17/11/17 06:10:00 Graham Weeks
                                          Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 06:11:00 Graham Weeks
                                             Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 07:14:00 Keith Iddon
                                                Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 07:47:00 Graham Weeks
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 08:10:00 Keith Iddon
                                                Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 16:26:00 Paul James
                                             Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 16:25:00 Paul James
                                                Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club17/11/17 16:48:00 Keith Iddon
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club20/11/17 09:41:00 Tricia Arbuthnot
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club20/11/17 09:56:00 Graham Weeks
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit at the golf club20/11/17 17:37:00 Andy Jones
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 24/11/17 16:57:00 Graham Weeks
                                                               Why is EU Immigration Rising?29/11/17 07:53:00 Andy Jones
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 05/12/17 16:49:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 06/12/17 11:25:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 06/12/17 12:52:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 06/12/17 13:42:00 Andy Jones
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 06/12/17 14:58:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 07/12/17 09:21:00 Andy Jones
                                                                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 08/12/17 20:56:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 08/12/17 22:08:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 09/12/17 05:05:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 10/12/17 04:25:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 11/12/17 21:18:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 11/12/17 22:28:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 12/12/17 05:22:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 12/12/17 21:14:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit 13/12/17 08:26:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                            Re: Brexit 14/12/17 16:33:00 Susan Rowe
                                                                                                               Re:Re: Brexit 14/12/17 16:47:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                                  Re:Re:Re: Brexit 14/12/17 17:00:00 Leslie Bailey
                                                                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 14/12/17 17:23:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 14/12/17 18:24:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 29/12/17 10:48:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 29/12/17 15:23:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 12/01/18 12:58:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 12/01/18 13:06:00 Peter Chadburn
                                                                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 12/01/18 13:18:00 Penelope Crocker
                                                                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 12/01/18 14:28:00 Graham Weeks
                                                                                                                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 12/01/18 15:05:00 Peter Chadburn
                                                                                                                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brexit 22/01/18 13:57:00 Graham Weeks
   Re:Brexit17/03/18 08:14:00 Graham Weeks
      Re:Re:Brexit17/03/18 19:33:00 Graham Weeks
         Re:Re:Re:Brexit18/03/18 12:06:00 Philippa Bond
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit18/03/18 13:32:00 Andy Jones
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit19/03/18 08:02:00 Graham Weeks
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Brexit19/03/18 17:41:00 Peter Chadburn

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