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Topic: Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?
Posted by: Andy Jones
Date/Time: 13/09/19 08:10:00

I've had a number of conversations in the area about what seems likely to be a general election in the near future. Nearly everybody I have spoken to voted Labour in the last election, these included not just life-long Labour party supporters but dyed in the wool Tories and floating voters.

The reasons were various but boiled down to three main factors with Brexit being the main one obviously. The other factors most often mentioned were Theresa May's social care plans and the belief that there was zero chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

Given that Rupa Huq is widely acknowledged to be a good constituency MP and she won a massive majority last time out it may seem preposterous to think in terms of her not winning at the next vote. However, it shouldn't be forgotten that she previously held the seat with a tiny majority and it was initially expected that she might not win.

My unrepresentative sample suggests that circumstances this time will deprive her of some of the votes she had before. Jeremy Corbyn being prime minister is a much more likely scenario which means that disaffected Tories and many habitual Labour voters are not going to back her. Also her huge majority was in large part a protest vote against Brexit. Although her personal record on the subject is impeccable, her party's is not and many people wanting to signal support for remaining in the EU are going to vote Lib Dem. Plus this time the Greens will probably stand losing her more votes.

Whether or not these changes are enough to put the seat at risk is debatable but Rupa probably needs to brace herself for a much reduced majority. It will be interesting to see the resources the Tories committ to the constituency because they will probably need a few surprise results to form a government and no doubt Dominic Cummings is looking very closely at all the data.


Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?13/09/19 08:10:00 Andy Jones
   Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?13/09/19 19:46:00 Peter Evans
      Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/09/19 07:31:00 Nick Goodliffe
         Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/09/19 07:59:00 Mark Evans
   Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/09/19 12:14:00 Susan Kelly
      Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?20/09/19 16:21:00 Andy Jones
         Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?24/09/19 08:42:00 Mark Evans
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?24/09/19 08:58:00 N V Brooks
               Reply25/09/19 08:53:00 Gordon Southwell
                  Reply25/09/19 17:31:00 Dennis O'Shea
                     Re:Reply26/09/19 11:34:00 Kevin Wilson
                        Reply26/09/19 11:50:00 Gordon Southwell
                           Re:Reply26/09/19 11:56:00 Rosco White
                              Reply07/10/19 10:52:00 Gordon Southwell
                                 Re:Reply07/10/19 18:28:00 Keith Iddon
                                    Re:Re:Reply07/10/19 22:35:00 Sara Nathan
                                       Re:Re:Re:Reply08/10/19 15:14:00 Rosco White
                                          Reply10/10/19 09:00:00 Dennis O'Shea
                                             Re:Reply11/10/19 10:23:00 Andy Jones
                                                Re:Re:Reply14/10/19 16:15:00 Mark Evans
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Reply15/10/19 15:50:00 Scott Jones
   Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?15/10/19 15:40:00 Scott Jones
      Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?15/10/19 17:07:00 Andy Jones
         Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/10/19 16:10:00 Scott Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/10/19 16:28:00 Andy Jones
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/10/19 16:52:00 Scott Jones
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/10/19 19:39:00 Scott Jones
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?16/10/19 22:03:00 Rosco White
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?17/10/19 15:39:00 Scott Jones
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?17/10/19 17:36:00 Rosco White
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?18/10/19 19:37:00 Graham Weeks
   Re:Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour?22/10/19 10:15:00 Andy Jones

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