| Topic: | Is Ealing Central and Acton a safe seat for Labour? | Forum Home |
| Posted by: | Andy Jones | |
| Date/Time: | 13/09/19 08:10:00 |
| I've had a number of conversations in the area about what seems likely to be a general election in the near future. Nearly everybody I have spoken to voted Labour in the last election, these included not just life-long Labour party supporters but dyed in the wool Tories and floating voters. The reasons were various but boiled down to three main factors with Brexit being the main one obviously. The other factors most often mentioned were Theresa May's social care plans and the belief that there was zero chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Given that Rupa Huq is widely acknowledged to be a good constituency MP and she won a massive majority last time out it may seem preposterous to think in terms of her not winning at the next vote. However, it shouldn't be forgotten that she previously held the seat with a tiny majority and it was initially expected that she might not win. My unrepresentative sample suggests that circumstances this time will deprive her of some of the votes she had before. Jeremy Corbyn being prime minister is a much more likely scenario which means that disaffected Tories and many habitual Labour voters are not going to back her. Also her huge majority was in large part a protest vote against Brexit. Although her personal record on the subject is impeccable, her party's is not and many people wanting to signal support for remaining in the EU are going to vote Lib Dem. Plus this time the Greens will probably stand losing her more votes. Whether or not these changes are enough to put the seat at risk is debatable but Rupa probably needs to brace herself for a much reduced majority. It will be interesting to see the resources the Tories committ to the constituency because they will probably need a few surprise results to form a government and no doubt Dominic Cummings is looking very closely at all the data. |