I think you are absolutely right about this and it makes the number of seats per party very unpredictable. Tactical voting seems to be getting more effective as better information is spread about likely outcomes in individual seats. I've just been reading about Chelsea and Fulham where the Labour/Lib Dem vote was split last time but this time it looks very like Labour will take what was once one of the safest Tory seats in the country.
If I was a betting person or worked for Conservative Central Office I would have a punt on the Lib Dems vastly exceeding expectations becoming the Official Opposition and Reform getting more than one seat maybe as many as five. Most of the 'rumours' Rosco hears are either made up by him or someone on a swivel eyed loon Facebook Group but this time there may be something to it. Obviously the betting scandal means they will cannabalise the Conservative vote at a greater rate but there is serious discussion among many left leaning people in constituencies where Reform has a chance and a progressive candidate has none of voting Farage. The logic is that a good performance for Reform will ensure the Tory lurch to the right continues and the parties eventually merge with Farage or Braverman at the helm guaranteed at least a decade of Labour rule. Such a tactic could deliver Reform 5 MPs but its proponents say it won't make any difference because they will become Conservatives when the parties merge after the election.
On the other hand we may be in a 'so good it is bad' scenario and Labour drastically underperforms its poll rating because people, particularly the young, think they have already won. |