| Topic: | Reply | |
| Posted by: | Gordon Southwell | |
| Date/Time: | 30/05/19 15:28:00 |
Of all the many problems there would be with picking Johnson as a leader his small majority is probably the most significant. Let's assume for now he wins the leadership contest with promises of leaving the EU regardless on 31 October. We can take it as a given that a new deal with the EU won't be magically conjured up between now and then. Even if it was somehow, he doesn't have the votes in the house to get it passed, whatever it is. Therefore as Halloween approaches he will probably be faced with a vote of no confidence. It is safe to assume that he will do everything he can to stay in power so at that point he may consider calling a general election. The problem is that he won his seat with a majority of just 5,000 and UKIP only polled 3.8% in his seat. If the Remain parties cooperate it is hard to see how he could win without an electoral pact with the Brexit party. This may serve Johnson's personal interests but it would be the most divisive act ever by a leader of the Conservatives. The Brexit party would insist on contesting the seats of those MPs considered to be too soft on leaving the EU. If the party didn't split before the election it would afterwards. The problem with this option, apart from the destruction of the party, would be that if Johnson fought the election on a 'no deal' ticket he knows he wouldn't achieve a majority in the House. That leaves the other intriguing possibility that Johnson will feel that the only way that he can cling on to power is by accepting the need for a confirmatory referendum. Whatever the result it would see him in control for another couple of years and then he could fight an election against a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party in which Brexit wasn't the main issue. This obvious would be a betrayal of everyone who supported him as leader but they should not be surprised when a man who has acted in a cravenly opportunistic way all through his career acts in a cravenly opportunistic way. |